房地产的末日今年下半年就会来临

来源: 2020-05-31 09:06:00 [] [博客] [旧帖] [给我悄悄话] 本文已被阅读: 次 (1447 bytes)
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Housing in cyclical markets is about to be destroyed:
1. Mortgage delinquency rates have already surpassed 2008, in fact they're double.
2. Unemployment is double the great recession and will exceed great depression levels.
3. The vast majority of increases to housing prices have been 40 years of decreasing interest rates (no longer possible).
4. Lending has tightened greatly and will likely to continue to do so as delinquencies across all asset classes rise.
5. Largest debt in history surpassing even the great financial crisis and spread across all debt classes.
6. Nearly 70 percent of Americans have less than $1,000 stashed away.
7. We have yet to have a major financial failure putting potentially trillions in derivatives at risk.
8. Remote working arrangements will allow people to move out of expensive city centers. My family is now looking at rural land and moving out of Arizona to a lower tax low cost of living state.
9. The Case Shiller Index is at historic highs (grotesquely overvalued). 2013 Nobel Memorial Prize in Economic Sciences showing that asset prices ALWAYS return to their 100 index level. Many cities are at 200+
10. ALL of this is taking place with RECORD stimulus, in fact, many people are making more than when they were employed AND they're not having to pay rent or mortgages. Imagine the carnage when this assuredly and eventually ends.

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你的标题有些耸人听闻,地主们听了都要不高兴的。地主们该怎么办吧?Just hold on tight for the ride? -田野小溪- 给 田野小溪 发送悄悄话 田野小溪 的个人群组 (0 bytes) () 05/31/2020 postreply 09:32:16

太吓人了,这下半年还有1个月就到了啊,会不会产生大暴乱大饥荒? -新手地主刚上路- 给 新手地主刚上路 发送悄悄话 新手地主刚上路 的个人群组 (0 bytes) () 05/31/2020 postreply 09:58:07

不好意思,题目没有完全讲清楚,地主们应该高兴,抄底的机会来了 -bombyx- 给 bombyx 发送悄悄话 bombyx 的博客首页 bombyx 的个人群组 (0 bytes) () 05/31/2020 postreply 10:01:00

Mortgage delinquency高但是还是不能foreclose,所以暂时不会crash -sneezy888- 给 sneezy888 发送悄悄话 sneezy888 的个人群组 (0 bytes) () 05/31/2020 postreply 10:05:38

yes, it might take months or years -bombyx- 给 bombyx 发送悄悄话 bombyx 的博客首页 bombyx 的个人群组 (0 bytes) () 05/31/2020 postreply 10:48:22

这下可好,杨白劳可成为小地主,小地主可成为中地主,中地主可成为大地主 -bombyx- 给 bombyx 发送悄悄话 bombyx 的博客首页 bombyx 的个人群组 (0 bytes) () 05/31/2020 postreply 10:11:00

历史又要重演了,十年前买房的现在都是大地主了 -bombyx- 给 bombyx 发送悄悄话 bombyx 的博客首页 bombyx 的个人群组 (0 bytes) () 05/31/2020 postreply 10:23:00

现在赶紧把市中心的房子卖掉,留着现金到时抄底 -bombyx- 给 bombyx 发送悄悄话 bombyx 的博客首页 bombyx 的个人群组 (0 bytes) () 05/31/2020 postreply 10:34:00

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